Co-movement between Commodity Market and Equity Market: Does Commodity Market Change?

This paper, using Japanese market data, finds that although the correlation between equity markets and commodity market used to be negative or almost zero before around 2006, it has increased significantly after the global financial crisis in Autumn of 2008. In this sense, the commodity market lost its character as an alternative asset. However, the author argues that it is too early to conclude so because of several reasons.TOCOM; Commodity Futures; Japan; Index; Bubble

A Hybrid Commodity and Interest Rate

A joint model of commodity price and interest rate risk is constructed analogously to the multi-currency LIBOR Market Model (LMM). Going beyond a simple "re-interpretation" of the multi-currency LMM, issues arising in the application of the model to actual commodity market data are specifically addressed. Firstly, liquid market prices are only available for options on commodity futures, rather than forwards, thus the difference between forward and futures prices must be explicitly taken into account in the calibration. Secondly, we construct a procedure to achieve a consistent fit of the model to market data for interest options, commodity options and historically estimated correlations between interest rates and commodity prices. We illustrate the model by an application to real market data and derive pricing formulas for commodity spread options.Commodity modeling; LIBOR Market Model; commodity futures; interest rate risk; spread options

A Second Look at the 2007-08 Food Price Crisis: Considering the Impact of Endogenous Dynamics on Food Prices

This paper offers an alternative to the conventional explanation of the 2007-08 food price crisis in terms of escalating demand or dwindling supply. Instead, its focus is on the legal-institutional structure of commodity futures markets, which has witnessed a drastic alteration in the role of speculators. These have transformed from “market makers” (that keep commodity futures markets liquid by arbitraging on price fluctuations) to "market breakers". Index speculation, in particular, has had the effect of muddling information about market "fundamentals" because of the need – brought about by commodity index swaps – for swap dealers to hedge the fluctuations of an index of commodity prices by opening and periodically rolling over long-only positions. This periodical rollover to comply with contractual obligations, rather than in response to anticipated fluctuations in the availability of a commodity in the future, can induce a "contango bias" in the commodity futures market that, in turn, might have given the wrong signals to market operators, leading to a condition of induced (rather than pre-existing) scarcity and to an increase in spot prices in the 2007-08 crisis

A Self-organising Model of Market with Single Commodity

We have studied here the self-organising features of the dynamics of a model market, where the agents `trade' for a single commodity with their money. The model market consists of fixed numbers of economic agents, money supply and commodity. We demonstrate that the model, apart from showing a self-organising behaviour, indicates a crucial role for the money supply in the market and also its self-organising behaviour is seen to be significantly affected when the money supply becomes less than the optimum. We also observed that this optimal money supply level of the market depends on the amount of `frustration' or scarcity in the commodity market.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures (encapsulated postscript

Market Power and Commodity Prices: Brazil, Chile and the United States, 1820s-1930

The paper focuses on market power by certain countries in specific commodity markets as a crucial factor in explaining the level of protection. It is argued that a country which is a price maker in the world market of a specific commodity might affect its world price through export taxes, import taxes and commodity stockpiling. Standard reduced form equations were estimated to test if significant market shares in international markets of Brazilian coffee, Chilean saltpetre and US cotton implied domestic variables were relevant for the determination of the corresponding world commodity prices. Results suggest the producers succeeded in passing through increases in internal costs to the relevant world commodity price.

New types of non-trade related participation in commodity futures markets

This paper explores the growing involvement of new types of non- commodity-sector-related players in commodity futures markets. This includes a discussion on the role of managed funds, the impact of the use of commodity warrants, and the direct involvement of banks. The impact of this new form of "speculation" on the price formation process on commodity futures markets is then examined, and conclusions are drawn as to the use of these markets by commodity sector actors.commodity futures market, futures, options, speculation, market efficiency

Some approaches to the analysis of market structure's impact in milk commodity chain

The nowadays development in agribusiness can be characterised as shifting of power to the finalising levels and distribution in food commodity chains, which influence as well as form competitive environment of farm and also food-processing companies. The dependence of producers (farmers) on finalising stage is increasing, as well as the risk is transferred and the marked power is enforced in food commodity chains. Those factors are changing proportions, conditions of approach and share of individual stages of commodity chain on value added launched in final product. Possible approach to the identification of market power within food commodity chains is the approach based on price transmission analysis; inelastic price transmission (especially in case of price growth) can imply the existence of market power at certain market level of the commodity chain. This approach - with the distinction of dairy products with low or high value added - is applied on dairy commodity chain in conditions of the Czech Republic.commodity chain, market structure, milk and milk products, price transmission, value added, Agribusiness, Livestock Production/Industries,